Colorado River in Crisis
Darah Fuller
The Colorado River is in a state of crisis. This is not merely an ecological issue to concern environmental bleeding hearts, this is on track to deeply impact the lives of the 40 million Americans that depend on the Colorado for water and power. The Colorado River Compact of 1922 establishes how the water should be allocated between states. The Compact was established based on faulty flow evaluations that overestimated the annual flow of the Colorado River to be in the neighborhood of 17.5 million acre feet, when in reality the annual flow fluctuates between 11.5 and 13.5 maf. Obviously much has changed in the past century, including exponential population growth and the onset of an ongoing 22-year drought in Colorado which has reduced water flows in the Colorado by about 20%. This has exacerbated the developing water crisis and dramatically reduced water levels in the nation's two largest reservoirs Lake Mead and Lake Powell.
Lake Mead is projected to operate in a level 2a shortage condition for the first time in history beginning in 2023. This triggers previously agreed-upon reductions in water use for Arizona, Nevada, and Mexico. In Arizona, the cuts total 592,000 acre-feet - 21% of the state’s annual apportionment. In Nevada, the cuts will be 92,000 acre-feet or about 8%. Mexico will lose about 7% or 104,000 acre-feet.
The federal government stepped in this summer identifying a need to cut two to four million acre-feet in water savings in 2023. For reference, one-acre foot of water is approximately 326,000 gallons, or the amount of water needed to cover a football field with one foot of water.
States were given two months to agree on an emergency water-saving plan, with a deadline of August 16, 2022. Upon reaching the deadline, the lowest basin states, Arizona, Nevada, and California, were still unable to commit to a course of action. As a result, the Bureau of Reclamation extended the deadline.
In addition to being unable to meet the original deadline, the lower basin states also consume the lion's share of the water allocated out of the Colorado River. In 2021, the Upper Basin used about 3.5 million acre-feet, including water lost to evaporation. In the Lower Basin, 2021 numbers show nearly 10 million acre-feet accounting for water use plus additional evaporation losses of approximately 1 million acre-feet. The Bureau of Reclamation has explained that if the states are unable to reach a decision, a decision will be made by the federal government on their behalf, but this would create a litany of political and legal issues.
In the arid West, there is no legal avenue for literally owning water. If one needs water, they must obtain water rights which provide them with the right to use a certain quantity of water. If water currently allocated to states is rescinded by the federal government, it could spur an onslaught of takings claims. To avoid this, the government could purchase water rights, but this would be staggeringly expensive. On October 12, 2022, the Department of the Interior announced the Lower Colorado Conservation and Efficiency Program. The Program features a three-part program with two parts dedicated to short-term mitigation of the crisis and one part aimed at finding long-term solutions.
One feature offers a fixed price of $300-$400 per acre-foot to set clear expectations for those interested in participating. Additionally, water users may propose conservation efforts and the price at which they will agree to participate in said proposals. Water users may choose whether or not to opt into cutbacks, and at what price point. While the new program is a step in the right direction, it fails to address the urgency of the situation and leaves some questions unanswered. "Reverse auctions” have been proposed to increase the spending power of the Inflation Reduction Act. Water users would bid the price they are willing to accept in order to forfeit certain amounts of water, with the lower bids being selected and those bidders getting paid. This will allow the Interior to accept more bids at better prices and increase voluntary conservation. Recent prices for water leases suggest that the $4 billion available under the Inflation Reduction Act could meet the needs for necessary cutbacks for approximately two to seven years if spent through an auction.
Despite its hesitation, the federal government will likely need to step in and issue interim restrictions on allocation between the basin states. In order to address long term issues arising from the overallocation of the Colorado River, it is crucial that the Colorado River Compact be amended to accurately represent the available annual flow of the Colorado River. The addition of procedures for implementing future amendments as needed are also important to avoid winding up in a similar state of crisis in the future, as climate change and growth in the West will likely further depress available flow in the Colorado River.