COP26: What, Who, Why
Image Credit: Kevin Gill via flickr.com
By Andie Hall
Climate change is no longer news. We have seen the effects from superstorms like Hurricane Sandy to bigger, hotter wildfires in California. Climate change is complicated, and because it occurs at a global level, those complexities need to be addressed at an international level. This effort came to fruition when the United Nations created the Framework Convention on Climate Change (“UNFCCC”) in 1994. One hundred and ninety-seven nations across the globe ratified the UNFCCC to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system. The part of the UNFCCC that makes the big decisions is the Conference of the Parties, or “COP” for short. The countries that are parties to the UNFCCC attend the COP where they review implementation of the UNFCCC and any other legal instruments needed for that implementation. The COP meets every year unless the parties decide otherwise, and it reviews national emission inventories submitted by each party.
There has been heightened attention on COP26, which will be held in Glasgow at the end of October, 2021. COP26 marks the end of the first five-year cycle for Nationally Determined Contributions (“NDCs”) under the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement manifested at COP21 in Paris. The parties to the Paris Agreement have agreed to submit an NDC that indicates the amount by which that country intends to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Since the Paris Agreement was signed, several powerful countries have left and returned to it. COP26 is significant in that whatever NDC each nation brings to the table will be in effect till 2025 and 2030.
This time period is critical to prevent warming beyond two degrees Celsius. After that threshold, the world will shift to more pure adaptation rather than mitigation to climate change and the events it produces. The details of what each degree of warming means is beyond the scope of this article. Major global leaders have, however, recognized the significance of COP26 and its timing. The Pope said: “COP26 in Glasgow represents an urgent summons to provide effective responses to the unprecedented ecological crisis and the crisis of values that we are presently experiencing, and in this way to offer concrete hope to future generations.” Unfortunately, the Pope doesn’t have a seat at the COP26 table.
Nations that are parties to the Paris Agreement are expected to produce NDCs before the meeting. Several key players, like China, Russia, and Australia, have yet to submit their NDCs. So far, only 114 countries have made new NDC pledges to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. Only nineteen of those countries have made stronger commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions in their NDCs. Several hypotheses could explain why countries are hesitant to take stronger action. First, they may face national political pressures. A national government’s political will is required to implement policies to work towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Second, lesser developed countries may not have the financial capacity to change their standard operations in a way that helps them reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Although the countries that require the most financial assistance are not the biggest emitters, they are usually the hardest hit by climate change. Some of the largest emitters are the same countries that have yet to submit their NDCs ahead of COP26. For example, China is by far the largest emitter, contributing 29% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2009. Converse to the lesser developed countries, China also has the second-largest economy in the world, measured by Gross Domestic Product.
With COP26 marking an important time for acting on climate change coupled with key players like China hanging in the wings, COP26 has generated a lot of attention. The event will conclude on November 12, after which we will have a better idea of the future of our climate.